Dow Jones (13155.13, +0.62%) did well on Friday as it rose past its 13090 Resistance, following the good NFP (146K against expected 91K) and the unemployment (7.7% against the expected 7.9%.) data release. The overall picture is looking bullish and a strong break above the 13200-50 Resistance region can take it further up to 13500-600.
Shanghai (2076.38, +0.71%) is again up a good bit. Next important resistance is at 2100-25 a rise to which is on the cards now. November exports up 2.90% which is below expectations of 9% rise. In spite of not so good data index is up by a good bit which suggests a positive bias.
Most of A-Pac is in the green with Australia (4568.10, +0.27%), Hang Seng (22339.85, +0.67%), New Zealand (4025, -0.40%) and Taiwan (7628.63, -0.18%).
Nifty (5907.40, -0.40%) has a slightly soft day which is understandable after a firm rise. Resistance is seen at 5950 on the break of which a 6000 + levels are likely.
Nikkei (9549, +0.23%) stays above 9450-00 also giving a weekly closing above the key level. It is now targeting 9800 in the coming sessions.
COMMODITIES
Nymex at support, Brent can dip further, Gold is up but mixed in the immediate term, Silver and Copper relatively strong.
Nymex Crude (86.20, +0.31%) has support at current levels but is vulnerable for a fall to 80 from which it can turn around.
Brent (107.46, +0.41%) looks weak and can dip further towards 103.00 in the near term. It can see further weakness if 103 is broken.
Gold (1707.50, +0.12%) has risen a bit but the rise does not seem to be very convincing. A dip to 1690-75 cannot be ruled out in the near/medium term. Longer term remains positive.
Silver (33.23, +0.31%) is up but corrective dips to 32.50 cannot be ruled out. The bigger 35.50-26 range holds.
Copper (3.68, +0.49%) is up as it finds support on the dip. Trend remains bullish and a further rise to 3.90 can be seen on the break of 3.70-73.
CURRENCIES
The Euro. Yen and Swiss are trading weak after the good US NFP data release on Friday and increasing uncertainity over the Euro Zone crisis as the Italian Prime Minister has offered to resign. However, the Pound and the Aussie are relatively looking strong against the Dollar as compared to the others. The Dollar Index (80.50) remains higher aboeve 80 and can rise to 80.80 in the coming days.
The Euro (1.2906) will have Resistance now in 1.2980-3000 region and can fall to 1.2800. We can expect it to be ranged between 1.2800 and 1.3150 for some time. Dollar-Yen (82.47) is still ranged between 81.70 and 82.80. The overall view is bullish for a rise to 84-85, but a corrective fall to 81 cannot be ruled out before a rise. The Euro-Yen Cross (106.44) is mixed and ranged between 106 and 108. There is a threat of seeing 104 on the downside if a break below 106 is seen. Immediate outlook is not clear.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9356) has taken good Support near 0.9240 last week. It can rise to the upper end of its 0.9200-500 sideways range on strong break above the immediate Resistance in 0.9380-400 region. The Pound (1.6026) is looking mixed in the near term, but with strong Support in the broad 1.5950-5870 region the bigger picture is bullish to see a rise to 1.6500-6600. Aussie (1.0475) is not showing strength on the downside and can rise to 1.0550-600 while above 1.0400.
In Asia, the USD-SGD (1.2215) has risen above 1.2215 and can rise to 1.2280-300 this week. Dollar-Rupee (54.47) did not break below 54 and could be ranged between 54 and 55 for some time.
INTEREST RATES
The Spain and the German 10yr yields are flat at 5.46% and 1.30% leaving the Spain-German 10Yr spread stable at 4.16%. The Spain-German spread has important Resistances at 4.25% and then near 4.50%. There will be danger only if the spread moves above these Resistances. While below 4.50% we cna expect the sutuation to get better going into 2013.
The US yield remains lower and flat. The 10yr yield was flat at 1.62% and has chances to dip to 1.50% after which it can see a bounce back
IMOH, Patrick E.
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