Clouded by estimates that the U.S. employers increased the number of jobs on the slowest pace within the last six months, before releasing tomorrow, the USD is heading towards its first monthly decline against the EUR since January. Yesterday, the USD was 0.2 percent away from a five-day low against the common currency. This might be caused due to the weak outlook of the U.S. economic indicators as well as growing rumors of an extending of the current monetary easing measures. Currently, the central bank is executing its third round of quantitate easing with a monthly asset purchasing program of 85 billion USD to lower the burden of the accumulated borrowing costs. In April, the number of privately employed workers climbed by 150,000, after increasing 158,000 in March, referring to a separate forecast of tomorrow's Roseland report by Bloomberg. The U.S government will release the latest labor market data on the 3rd of May. The EUR/USD was at 1.3090, after having briefly reached 1.3116, the strongest since the 19th of April. In addition, the U.S. currency expanded its four week drop to 2.1 percent. Also the Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes confirmed that the USD has tumbled 0.7 percent in April compared to the weak performance of the JPY with shrinkage of 4.9 percent. Since the 1st of January, the USD strengthened 0.7 percent against the 17 nation's currency and more than 13 percent against the JPY, while the EUR succeeded to advance nearly at the same pace as the USD.
Yesterday, the Asian stocks appreciated and the demand for riskier assets increased. Also the industrial production of Japan remained below economists' expectations supporting the assumption of a continuation of BOJ actions. A Bloomberg poll predicted a 0.4 percent rise in March, but the trade ministry announced only a surplus of 0.2 percent. Therefore the JPY, well known as a so-called haven currency, dropped against nearly all of its 16 currency peers and tumbled 0.2 percent to 97.93 versus its U.S. counterpart. In the meantime, the EUR rallied 0.1 percent against the Japanese peer and traded at 128.20 targeting a 6.1 percent rise this month
Technical analysis
XAU/USD (4 Hours)
According to our last week's assumption, gold has been following its bullish movement and was able to advance above the former resistance level around 1426.09 as well as the support level around 1454.74. Currently, the rate is set to test the close hurdle around 1485.20 for the second time by trading along an upward trend line. But Momentum and DeMarker are favoring the bears and in succession we might see a further rebound at this resistance, which could force the XAU/USD into a sideways movement.
Support Levels aroundResistance Levels around
1454.741485.20
1405.30 1566.42
1347.481588.82
XAG/USD (Daily)
After having failed to stay above the resistance level around 32.00, silver has been entering a bearish Andrew's pitchfork and showed an enormously drop to support line around 22.50 two weeks ago. The decrease stopped there and the pair experienced demand to the middle pitchfork line as well as the upper Bollinger band. While the CCI has already reached its overbought market zone, the MACD is still supporting additional gains. We have to wait and see, if the middle line is strong enough to restrain the bulls
Support Levels aroundResistance Levels around
22.50
29.24
N/A 32.00
N/A N/A
USD/CAD (Daily)
Since its final rebound from the support level around 0.9833 on the 16th of January, the USD has been increasing against the CAD above a bullish Fibonacci fan, before the resistance lines around 1.0335 and 1.0267 haltered further gains. The rate dropped down to the support around 1.0092 by entering the upper fan channel. Due to contradicting signs of the OsMA further losses might be seen or a continuation of the current sideways movement depending if the stochastic will be proved right.
Support Levels aroundResistance Levels around
1.0092
1.0167
0.99701.0267
0.9833 1.0335
IMOH, Clement I.
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