USD/CHF rebounded to as high as 0.9498 last week before retreating mildly. The development indicates that correction from 0.9566 has completed at 0.9206 already. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations but with 0.9339 minor support intact and further rise is expected. Above 0.9498 will bring retest of 0.9366 first. Break will resume whole rebound from 0.9021 to 100% projection of 0.9021 to 0.9566 from 0.9206 at 0.9751. Though, below 0.9339 will turn focus back to 0.9206 instead.
In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 0.7065 is viewed as a corrective move and should have completed after hitting 0.9916 resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.1730 to 0.7065 at 0.9948). Price actions from 0.9971 are expected to develop into a sideway pattern. That is, rise from 0.9021 would have a test on 0.9971 and have another fall before resuming the larger up trend. We'd continue to favor this case as long as 0.9206 support holds.
In the longer term picture, current development argues that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature, which in turn implies that medium term rise from the 0.7065 is not finished yet. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high).
IMOH, Clement I.
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