USD/JPY's sharp decline last week indicates that consolidation pattern from 99.94 is extending with another falling leg. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for deeper decline. But downside should be contained by 95.74 and bring rebound. An eventual upside breakout is expected and break of 100 should send USD/JPY to 161.8% projection of 77.13 to 96.70 from 92.56 at 104.65 next.
In the bigger picture, whole decline from 124.13 should have already completed at 75.56. Stronger medium term rally could be seen back towards 101.65 key support turned resistance level. We'll see how USD/JPY responds at around 100 to judge the underlying medium term momentum for stronger up trend. Sustained break there should at least push USD/JPY through 61.8% retracement of 124.13 to 75.56 at 105.57. Meanwhile, break of 92.56 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, we'll stay bullish.
In the long term picture, down trend from 124.13 has completed at 75.56 already. Rise from 75.56 is starting to look impulsive which suggests the start of a long term up trend. We'll pay close attention to how USD/JPY reacts on hitting 100 psychological level.
IMOH, Clement I.
+234 802 905 9344
+234 703 569 1707
No comments:
Post a Comment