◾ Non-farm payroll employment jumped a stronger than expected 204,000 in October 2013 following upwardly revised growth of 163,000 (was 148,000) and 238,000 (was 193,000) in September and August, respectively. Markets had expected a much smaller 120,000 increase in October.
◾ The unemployment rate, calculated from the separate household survey, rose to 7.3% from 7.2% in September; however, the increase likely reflected the temporary furlough of government workers during the partial federal government shutdown in October. Furloughed workers were counted as employed in the payroll employment survey but unemployed in the household survey.
◾ Private employment rose 212,000 following upwardly revised 150,000 (was 126,000) and 207,000 (was 161,000) increases in September and August, respectively. Government employment dipped 8,000 in October.
◾ The stronger than expected gain in employment in October, along with the cumulative 60,000 upward revision during the prior two months combined, leaves employment growth on a stronger than expected trajectory early in the fourth quarter of 2013. While the unemployment rate jumped higher, this appeared to be entirely the result of a record surge in those on temporary layoffs, which largely reflect furloughed government workers, and that is very likely to be reversed in November. With that said, while today's report is encouraging, it remains likely that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter will not match the stronger than expected, but inventory fuelled, 2.8% jump in third-quarter 2013 GDP reported yesterday. As well, while the unemployment rate will most likely move lower in November and December, as furloughed government workers return to work, the level will remain elevated and still consistent with significant slack remaining in the economy.
US payroll employment jumped a stronger than expected 204,000 in October 2013 following upwardly revised gains of 163,000 (was 148,000) and 238,000 (was 193,000) in September and August, respectively. Private employment jumped 212,000 in October, which was up from 150,000 (was 126,000) in September while government employment dipped 8,000 in October. Gains in the private sector were broadly based. Goods-producing industries added 35,000 positions, which were up from 27,000 in September, while services employment rose a stronger 177,000 than the 123,000 September increase. Government employment dipped 8,000 following a 13,000 increase in September. The temporary furlough of government workers during the 16-day government shutdown in October did not directly affect the payroll employment figures since furloughed workers were ultimately paid for their time away from work.
The unemployment rate, which is calculated from the separate household employment survey, rose to 7.3% from 7.2% in September; however, in contrast to the payroll employment survey, furloughed workers who did not work any hours in the household survey reference period were counted as unemployed. The increase in the unemployment rate in October was driven by a 448,000 surge in the number of workers on temporary layoff, a figure that includes the furloughed federal workers, that marked the largest increase on record for the series. Without the jump in workers on temporary layoff, the unemployment rate in October would have been closer to 7.0%.
The average workweek held constant at 34.4 hours in October, which along with the increase in employment, pushed the index of aggregate hours worked up 0.2% following a 0.2% dip in September. Average hourly earnings inched upward by 0.1% in October, thereby leaving the measure 2.2% above its year-ago level.
The stronger than expected gain in employment in October, along with the cumulative 60,000 upward revision during the prior two months combined, leaves employment growth on a stronger than expected trajectory early in the fourth quarter of 2013. While the unemployment rate jumped higher, this appeared to be entirely the result of a record surge in those on temporary layoffs, which largely reflects furloughed government workers, and that is very likely to be reversed in November. With that said, while today's report is encouraging, it remains likely that GDP growth in the fourth quarter will not match the stronger than expected, but inventory fuelled, 2.8% jump in third-quarter 2013 GDP reported yesterday. As well, while the unemployment rate will most likely move lower in November and December, as furloughed government workers return to work, the level will remain elevated and still consistent with significant slack remaining in the economy.
◾ The unemployment rate, calculated from the separate household survey, rose to 7.3% from 7.2% in September; however, the increase likely reflected the temporary furlough of government workers during the partial federal government shutdown in October. Furloughed workers were counted as employed in the payroll employment survey but unemployed in the household survey.
◾ Private employment rose 212,000 following upwardly revised 150,000 (was 126,000) and 207,000 (was 161,000) increases in September and August, respectively. Government employment dipped 8,000 in October.
◾ The stronger than expected gain in employment in October, along with the cumulative 60,000 upward revision during the prior two months combined, leaves employment growth on a stronger than expected trajectory early in the fourth quarter of 2013. While the unemployment rate jumped higher, this appeared to be entirely the result of a record surge in those on temporary layoffs, which largely reflect furloughed government workers, and that is very likely to be reversed in November. With that said, while today's report is encouraging, it remains likely that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the fourth quarter will not match the stronger than expected, but inventory fuelled, 2.8% jump in third-quarter 2013 GDP reported yesterday. As well, while the unemployment rate will most likely move lower in November and December, as furloughed government workers return to work, the level will remain elevated and still consistent with significant slack remaining in the economy.
US payroll employment jumped a stronger than expected 204,000 in October 2013 following upwardly revised gains of 163,000 (was 148,000) and 238,000 (was 193,000) in September and August, respectively. Private employment jumped 212,000 in October, which was up from 150,000 (was 126,000) in September while government employment dipped 8,000 in October. Gains in the private sector were broadly based. Goods-producing industries added 35,000 positions, which were up from 27,000 in September, while services employment rose a stronger 177,000 than the 123,000 September increase. Government employment dipped 8,000 following a 13,000 increase in September. The temporary furlough of government workers during the 16-day government shutdown in October did not directly affect the payroll employment figures since furloughed workers were ultimately paid for their time away from work.
The unemployment rate, which is calculated from the separate household employment survey, rose to 7.3% from 7.2% in September; however, in contrast to the payroll employment survey, furloughed workers who did not work any hours in the household survey reference period were counted as unemployed. The increase in the unemployment rate in October was driven by a 448,000 surge in the number of workers on temporary layoff, a figure that includes the furloughed federal workers, that marked the largest increase on record for the series. Without the jump in workers on temporary layoff, the unemployment rate in October would have been closer to 7.0%.
The average workweek held constant at 34.4 hours in October, which along with the increase in employment, pushed the index of aggregate hours worked up 0.2% following a 0.2% dip in September. Average hourly earnings inched upward by 0.1% in October, thereby leaving the measure 2.2% above its year-ago level.
The stronger than expected gain in employment in October, along with the cumulative 60,000 upward revision during the prior two months combined, leaves employment growth on a stronger than expected trajectory early in the fourth quarter of 2013. While the unemployment rate jumped higher, this appeared to be entirely the result of a record surge in those on temporary layoffs, which largely reflects furloughed government workers, and that is very likely to be reversed in November. With that said, while today's report is encouraging, it remains likely that GDP growth in the fourth quarter will not match the stronger than expected, but inventory fuelled, 2.8% jump in third-quarter 2013 GDP reported yesterday. As well, while the unemployment rate will most likely move lower in November and December, as furloughed government workers return to work, the level will remain elevated and still consistent with significant slack remaining in the economy.
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