EUR/JPY's fall from 145.68 extended last week and reached as low as 137.50. Initial bias remains on the downside for deeper decline. The break of the near term channel suggests downside acceleration. Also, the strong break of 55 days carries bearish implication. Deeper fall would be seen back to 135.50 key support level. Break will indicate larger trend reversal. On the upside, above 139.49 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 142.41 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, last week's downside accelerates is raising the odds of medium term topping at 145.68. It should be noted that weekly MACD crossed below signal line and display bearish divergence condition. Focus will now be on 135.50 key support level. Break there will confirm medium term topping. In such case, deeper decline would be seen back to 124.95 support and below to correct the whole up trend from 94.11. Meanwhile, break of 145.68 will extend such up trend to 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 and above.
In the long term picture, rebound from 94.11 long term bottom is having an impulsive look and thus, indicates that it's far from being finished. 139.21 key resistance is already taken out but there is no clear sign of topping yet. However, upside potential for the moment from long term perspective is limited with overbought condition in monthly and weekly RSI. We'd anticipate a correction any time, followed by another medium term up trend to retest 169.96 high
In the bigger picture, last week's downside accelerates is raising the odds of medium term topping at 145.68. It should be noted that weekly MACD crossed below signal line and display bearish divergence condition. Focus will now be on 135.50 key support level. Break there will confirm medium term topping. In such case, deeper decline would be seen back to 124.95 support and below to correct the whole up trend from 94.11. Meanwhile, break of 145.68 will extend such up trend to 76.4% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 152.59 and above.
In the long term picture, rebound from 94.11 long term bottom is having an impulsive look and thus, indicates that it's far from being finished. 139.21 key resistance is already taken out but there is no clear sign of topping yet. However, upside potential for the moment from long term perspective is limited with overbought condition in monthly and weekly RSI. We'd anticipate a correction any time, followed by another medium term up trend to retest 169.96 high
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