GBP/JPY's recovery was limited at 171.45 last week, by 4 hours 55 EMA. Subsequent fall pushed the cross through 167.76 support and resumed the decline from 174.84. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 166.57 support first. Outlook in GBP/JPY isn't too bearish yet. But sustained trading below 55 days EMA would pave the way for a test on 159.98 key support level. On the upside, break of 171.45 is needed to confirm near term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay mildly bearish.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 is still in progress and there is no sign of reversal yet. Break of 159.98 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish. The up trend from 116.83 should target 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 and above after completing the consolidation from 174.84.
In the longer term picture, GBP/JPY has broken 55 months EMA decisively and monthly MACD staying positive. The chance for a sustainable medium term to long term up trend is raised. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 168.11 now opens up the case for further rally to 61.8% retracement at 199.80 and above.
In the bigger picture, the up trend from 116.83 is still in progress and there is no sign of reversal yet. Break of 159.98 resistance turned support is needed to indicate medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish. The up trend from 116.83 should target 50% retracement retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 183.96 and above after completing the consolidation from 174.84.
In the longer term picture, GBP/JPY has broken 55 months EMA decisively and monthly MACD staying positive. The chance for a sustainable medium term to long term up trend is raised. Sustained trading above 38.2% retracement of 251.09 to 116.83 at 168.11 now opens up the case for further rally to 61.8% retracement at 199.80 and above.
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