Tuesday, 15 July 2014

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3597; (P) 1.3618 (R1) 1.3640; More....

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral at this point. On the downside, break of 1.3575 minor support will likely extend the fall from 1.3993 and will turn bias back to the downside for 1.3502 and then 1.3476 key support level. Meanwhile, above 1.3700 will bring another rally. But in that case, we'd expect strong resistance above 61.8% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.3502 at 1.3805 to bring reversal.

In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 is viewed as a corrective pattern. The choppy rise from 1.2042 is seen as a leg inside the pattern. Bearish divergence condition in daily and weekly MACD raises the chance that this leg is finished at 1.3993 already. Break of 1.3476 support will confirm this bearish case and should target 1.2755 and below. Meanwhile, break of 1.3993 is needed to confirm rally resumption. Otherwise, we won't turn bullish even in case of strong rebound.

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