Tuesday, 15 July 2014

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7053; (P) 1.7098; (R1) 1.7127;

Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. As long as 1.7062 support holds, further rise is expected. Above 1.7179 will target next key long term fibonacci level at 1.7332. We'd expect loss of momentum as it approaches this level and reverse from there. Meanwhile, considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 1.7062 resistance turned support will be an early sign of reversal and will turn bias to the downside for 1.6952 support first.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161. Based on unconvincing medium term momentum, we'd expect strong resistance from 50% retracement from 2.1161 to 1.3503 at 1.7332 to limit upside and bring reversal. Sustained break of 1.6692 will indicate medium term reversal and would turn outlook bearish for 1.4813 support.

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