Thursday, 24 July 2014

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0709; (P) 1.0727; (R1) 1.0744; More...

With 1.0693 minor support intact, further rise is still expected in USD/CAD. Considering that the pair has drawn strong support from 1.0680 cluster and the long term trend line, we're favoring the bullish case. That is, the corrective pull back from 1.1278 has completed at 1.0620 already. And further rise is expected to 1.0813. Decisive break there will confirm this bullish case and target 1.0960 and above. Meanwhile,, below 1.0693 will dampen this case and turn bias back to the downside for 1.0608 key support instead.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that the whole up trend from 0.9633 and 0.9406 is reversing. We'll stay medium term bullish as long as 1.0608 support holds (61.8% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1278 at 1.0600). Rise from 0.9406 is viewed as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9056 (2007 low) and is still expected to extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.1666 in medium term after completing the correction from 1.1278. However, sustained break of 1.0608 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish.

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