Weekly
◾Last Candlesticks pattern: N/A
◾Time of formation: N/A
◾Trend bias: Down
Daily
◾Last Candlesticks pattern: Bullish engulfing
◾Time of formation: 9 May 2013
◾Trend bias: Up
USD/CAD – 1.0451
As the greenback has staged a stronger-than-expected rebound after finding support at 1.0271, dampening our bearishness and 1.0465-70 needs to hold to retain prospect of another retreat, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0359) would suggest top is possibly formed and bring weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 1.0338) but a daily close below there is needed to confirm and bring another fall towards said support at 1.0271. Looking ahead, a break of this level would signal the rebound from 1.0182 has ended and bring another fall towards this support later, a drop below this support would signal the erratic decline from 1.0609 top has resumed for a stronger correction of early upmove to previous support at 1.0137 and possibly 1.0090-00.
On the upside, above 1.0465-70 would signal the decline from 1.0609 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to 1.0500-10 but above resistance at 1.0569 is needed to indicate early upmove from 0.9633 low has resumed for a retest of 1.0609, once this level is penetrated, this would extend headway to previous chart resistance at 1.0658, then 1.0700 and later towards 1.0750, having said that, price should falter well below another chart resistance at 1.0854.
Recommendation: Hold short entered at 1.0370 for 1.0185 with stop above 1.0470
On the weekly chart, as the greenback has rebounded again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.0271, a long white candlestick is likely to be formed, indicated upside target at 1.0420-25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0569-1.0182) had been met, however, only a weekly close above 1.0500 would suggest correction from 1.0609 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to resistance at 1.0569, above there would bring another rise towards recent high of 1.0609. Having said that, only above this resistance would confirm upmove has resumed and encourage for headway to chart resistance at 1.0658, a breach above there would signal an upside break of the early established 0.9633-1.0658 range has occured and another leg of upmove from 0.9407 (2011 low) would take place for subsequent rise to 1.0740-50, then towards previous resistance at 1.0854.
On the downside, whilst pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0371) is likely, break of said support at 1.0271 is needed to suggest top is formed and revive bearishness, this would suggest signal rebound from 1.0182 has ended, then weakness towards this support would be seen later. Looking ahead, below this support at 1.0182 would signal the decline from 1.0609 top is still in progress for a stronger correction of recent rise from 0.9633 to previous support at 1.0137, below there would add credence to this view and extend weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 1.0040) but reckon downside would be limited to the psychological level of 1.0000 (just above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9633-1.0609 at 1.0006) and support at 0.9933 should remain intact
◾Last Candlesticks pattern: N/A
◾Time of formation: N/A
◾Trend bias: Down
Daily
◾Last Candlesticks pattern: Bullish engulfing
◾Time of formation: 9 May 2013
◾Trend bias: Up
USD/CAD – 1.0451
As the greenback has staged a stronger-than-expected rebound after finding support at 1.0271, dampening our bearishness and 1.0465-70 needs to hold to retain prospect of another retreat, below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.0359) would suggest top is possibly formed and bring weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 1.0338) but a daily close below there is needed to confirm and bring another fall towards said support at 1.0271. Looking ahead, a break of this level would signal the rebound from 1.0182 has ended and bring another fall towards this support later, a drop below this support would signal the erratic decline from 1.0609 top has resumed for a stronger correction of early upmove to previous support at 1.0137 and possibly 1.0090-00.
On the upside, above 1.0465-70 would signal the decline from 1.0609 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to 1.0500-10 but above resistance at 1.0569 is needed to indicate early upmove from 0.9633 low has resumed for a retest of 1.0609, once this level is penetrated, this would extend headway to previous chart resistance at 1.0658, then 1.0700 and later towards 1.0750, having said that, price should falter well below another chart resistance at 1.0854.
Recommendation: Hold short entered at 1.0370 for 1.0185 with stop above 1.0470
On the weekly chart, as the greenback has rebounded again after finding renewed buying interest at 1.0271, a long white candlestick is likely to be formed, indicated upside target at 1.0420-25 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0569-1.0182) had been met, however, only a weekly close above 1.0500 would suggest correction from 1.0609 has ended and bring a stronger rebound to resistance at 1.0569, above there would bring another rise towards recent high of 1.0609. Having said that, only above this resistance would confirm upmove has resumed and encourage for headway to chart resistance at 1.0658, a breach above there would signal an upside break of the early established 0.9633-1.0658 range has occured and another leg of upmove from 0.9407 (2011 low) would take place for subsequent rise to 1.0740-50, then towards previous resistance at 1.0854.
On the downside, whilst pullback to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.0371) is likely, break of said support at 1.0271 is needed to suggest top is formed and revive bearishness, this would suggest signal rebound from 1.0182 has ended, then weakness towards this support would be seen later. Looking ahead, below this support at 1.0182 would signal the decline from 1.0609 top is still in progress for a stronger correction of recent rise from 0.9633 to previous support at 1.0137, below there would add credence to this view and extend weakness to the lower Kumo (now at 1.0040) but reckon downside would be limited to the psychological level of 1.0000 (just above 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9633-1.0609 at 1.0006) and support at 0.9933 should remain intact
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