Following a sharp up-move on Friday last week, the US Dollar, on Monday, dropped marginally amid thin market conditions due a US holiday in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. On Tuesday, the US Dollar held steady lead by renewed expectations that the Fed might decide to trim its bond-purchase program for the second time at its upcoming meeting on January 28 – 29.
EURUSD
Last week on Friday, the pair decisively dropped below an important support near 1.3600 mark, representing 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of Nov. to Dec. 2013 up-move, leading to a decisive break below the lower trend line support of an ascending trend channel formation on daily chart. On Monday, the pair initially weakened towards an intermediate horizontal support near 1.3500 round figure mark, coinciding with 61.8% retracement level, but managed to pull-back towards a support turned resistance near 1.3570 area, marking the break-down point from the ascending trend-channel. The pair is currently quoting at 1.3535 down from 1.3553 on Monday.
Should the pair now drop below 1.3500 immediate support, it is likely to further depreciate towards testing the 1.3430 - 1.3410 support zone, comprising of 38.2% retracement level and 200-day SMA respectively. However, should the pair manage to hold this immediate support and witness a pull-back, it could easily climb back 1.3580 - 1.3600 support turned resistance zone. Further, the 1.3600 zone now seems to cap immediate up-move for the pair and a decisive strength above 1.3600 zone would probably negate any short-term bearish outlook for the pair and the pair is likely to immediately climb back towards 1.3700 resistance level.
GBPUSD
Even a surprisingly stronger UK retail sales data, release last week, failed to lift the pair back towards 1.6500 resistance area or decisively close above 1.6440 - 1.6450 resistance zone, representing 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of Nov. to Dec. 2013 up-move. This 1.6450 area, closely followed by 1.6500 zone, now seems to act as immediate strong resistance levels for the pair. Should the pair manage to decisively conquer the 1.6500 resistance zone, it is likely to continue rising, even beyond 1.6600 intermediate resistance mark touched on Jan. 2, towards its next horizontal resistance near 1.6680 - 1.6700 zone.
On the downside, 1.6400 area has acted as a important level on several occasions. Thus, should the pair now drop below 1.6400 support level, it could immediately drop towards 1.6340 - 1.6320 strong support zone, comprising of 50-day SMA, 38.2% retracement level and an ascending trend-line support extending from low touched on Nov. 25 through Dec. 2013 and Jan. 2014 lows. Further, a decisive drop below 1.6340 - 1.6320 support zone might infuse additional weakness for the pair towards testing 1.6200 support zone, marked by 50% retracement level and 100-day SMA.
NZDUSD
Following the release of higher-than-expected inflation data on Monday, the pair rebounded sharply from its very important support near 0.8200 - 0.8220 zone, coinciding with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of August to October 2013 up-move. The pair managed to move back above and is currently hovering around 0.8300 round figure mark. The pair, however, has still not managed to strengthen above 0.8380 - 0.8400 strong horizontal resistance zone, which might negate the formation of a Triple-Top bearish chart pattern.
Should the pair manage to decisively conquer the 0.8400 mark, it is likely to continue appreciating in the near-term initially towards Oct. 2013 closing highs near 0.8500 level and further towards 2013 closing highs near 0.8600 region. On the downside, 100-day SMA also coinciding with a horizontal support near 0.8300 - 0.8280 zone, now seems to provide immediate support for the pair, which if breached could easily drag the pair back towards 0.8220 - 0.8200 strong support area. Further, a decisive weakness below 0.8200 region would complete the Triple-Top bearish chart pattern, exerting additional pressure on the pair towards testing another important support near 0.8130 - 0.8110 zone, representing 50% retracement level and 200-day SMA respectively.
USDJPY
Following its sharp swing from sub 103.00 level to nearly testing 105.00 level, the pair managed to hold above 104.00 on weekly closing basis. Further, after consolidating on Monday, the pair resumed its upward trajectory the pair is now aiming towards 105.00 mark. This 105.00 region, closely followed by 2013 daily closing high of 105.30, might continue to act as immediate major resistance for the pair. Should the pair continue to strengthen and decisively clear the 105.00 barrier, it is likely to surpass 106.00 round figure mark toward hitting a fresh five-year high, near 106.50 major resistance zone, marking a long-term descending trend-line extending from Aug. 1998 highs through 2002 and 2007 highs.
On the downside, 104.00 area (104.00 - 103.80 zone) might continue to act as immediate support for the pair. Decisive weakness below 104.00 region might take the pair towards retesting 103.00 strong support area, consisting of 50-day SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of Oct. 2013 to Jan. recent up-move and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of a big down-trend witnessed from 1998 till 2011. Further, should the pair decisively break below 103.00 strong support area, it is likely to witness additional weakness towards 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level support near 101.00.
EURUSD
Last week on Friday, the pair decisively dropped below an important support near 1.3600 mark, representing 100-day SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of Nov. to Dec. 2013 up-move, leading to a decisive break below the lower trend line support of an ascending trend channel formation on daily chart. On Monday, the pair initially weakened towards an intermediate horizontal support near 1.3500 round figure mark, coinciding with 61.8% retracement level, but managed to pull-back towards a support turned resistance near 1.3570 area, marking the break-down point from the ascending trend-channel. The pair is currently quoting at 1.3535 down from 1.3553 on Monday.
Should the pair now drop below 1.3500 immediate support, it is likely to further depreciate towards testing the 1.3430 - 1.3410 support zone, comprising of 38.2% retracement level and 200-day SMA respectively. However, should the pair manage to hold this immediate support and witness a pull-back, it could easily climb back 1.3580 - 1.3600 support turned resistance zone. Further, the 1.3600 zone now seems to cap immediate up-move for the pair and a decisive strength above 1.3600 zone would probably negate any short-term bearish outlook for the pair and the pair is likely to immediately climb back towards 1.3700 resistance level.
GBPUSD
Even a surprisingly stronger UK retail sales data, release last week, failed to lift the pair back towards 1.6500 resistance area or decisively close above 1.6440 - 1.6450 resistance zone, representing 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of Nov. to Dec. 2013 up-move. This 1.6450 area, closely followed by 1.6500 zone, now seems to act as immediate strong resistance levels for the pair. Should the pair manage to decisively conquer the 1.6500 resistance zone, it is likely to continue rising, even beyond 1.6600 intermediate resistance mark touched on Jan. 2, towards its next horizontal resistance near 1.6680 - 1.6700 zone.
On the downside, 1.6400 area has acted as a important level on several occasions. Thus, should the pair now drop below 1.6400 support level, it could immediately drop towards 1.6340 - 1.6320 strong support zone, comprising of 50-day SMA, 38.2% retracement level and an ascending trend-line support extending from low touched on Nov. 25 through Dec. 2013 and Jan. 2014 lows. Further, a decisive drop below 1.6340 - 1.6320 support zone might infuse additional weakness for the pair towards testing 1.6200 support zone, marked by 50% retracement level and 100-day SMA.
NZDUSD
Following the release of higher-than-expected inflation data on Monday, the pair rebounded sharply from its very important support near 0.8200 - 0.8220 zone, coinciding with 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of August to October 2013 up-move. The pair managed to move back above and is currently hovering around 0.8300 round figure mark. The pair, however, has still not managed to strengthen above 0.8380 - 0.8400 strong horizontal resistance zone, which might negate the formation of a Triple-Top bearish chart pattern.
Should the pair manage to decisively conquer the 0.8400 mark, it is likely to continue appreciating in the near-term initially towards Oct. 2013 closing highs near 0.8500 level and further towards 2013 closing highs near 0.8600 region. On the downside, 100-day SMA also coinciding with a horizontal support near 0.8300 - 0.8280 zone, now seems to provide immediate support for the pair, which if breached could easily drag the pair back towards 0.8220 - 0.8200 strong support area. Further, a decisive weakness below 0.8200 region would complete the Triple-Top bearish chart pattern, exerting additional pressure on the pair towards testing another important support near 0.8130 - 0.8110 zone, representing 50% retracement level and 200-day SMA respectively.
USDJPY
Following its sharp swing from sub 103.00 level to nearly testing 105.00 level, the pair managed to hold above 104.00 on weekly closing basis. Further, after consolidating on Monday, the pair resumed its upward trajectory the pair is now aiming towards 105.00 mark. This 105.00 region, closely followed by 2013 daily closing high of 105.30, might continue to act as immediate major resistance for the pair. Should the pair continue to strengthen and decisively clear the 105.00 barrier, it is likely to surpass 106.00 round figure mark toward hitting a fresh five-year high, near 106.50 major resistance zone, marking a long-term descending trend-line extending from Aug. 1998 highs through 2002 and 2007 highs.
On the downside, 104.00 area (104.00 - 103.80 zone) might continue to act as immediate support for the pair. Decisive weakness below 104.00 region might take the pair towards retesting 103.00 strong support area, consisting of 50-day SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level of Oct. 2013 to Jan. recent up-move and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level of a big down-trend witnessed from 1998 till 2011. Further, should the pair decisively break below 103.00 strong support area, it is likely to witness additional weakness towards 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level support near 101.00.
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