Friday, 5 September 2014

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0827; (P) 1.0867; (R1) 1.0915; More...

The consolidation from 1.0997 is still in progress and more choppy sideway trading could be seen. Break of 1.0997 will will resume larger rally from 1.0620 and should target a test on 1.1278 high. In case of another fall, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 1.0620 to 1.0997 at 1.0764 to bring rebound.

In the bigger picture, there is no clear sign that the whole up trend from 0.9633 and 0.9406 is reversing. We'll stay medium term bullish as long as 1.0608 support holds (61.8% retracement of 1.0181 to 1.1278 at 1.0600). Rise from 0.9406 is viewed as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9056 (2007 low) and is still expected to extend to 61.8% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9406 at 1.1666 in medium term after completing the correction from 1.1278. However, sustained break of 1.0608 will argue that the medium term trend has reversed and will turn outlook bearish.

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