AUD/USD dipped to 1.0220 last week but recovered since then. With 1.0358 resistance intact, deeper decline is still expected. Initial bias is neutral this week and more consolidations could be seen. And break of 1.0220 will bring another decline to 1.0115 support. On the upside, above 1.0358 will turn bias back to the upside for stronger recovery to 1.0581 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 high are treated as a consolidation pattern in the larger up trend, in form of a triangle. There is no clear sign of breakout yet. But in case of another fall, downside should be contained above 0.9588. Meanwhile, break of 1.0624 will be an early sign of up trend resumption and should bring retest of 1.1079 high next.
In the longer term picture, whole up trend from 0.4773 (01 low) extended to a point where it just missed 100% projection of 0.4773 to 0.9849 from 0.6008 at 1.1084. At this point, there is still prospect for a lengthier medium term consolidation. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. We'll stay bullish as long as 0.8066 support holds and expect an eventual break of 1.1084 to 138.2% projection at 1.3023, which is close to 1.3 psychological level, in the long term.
IMOH, Clement I.
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