Tuesday, 15 July 2014

AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9379; (P) 0.9391; (R1) 0.9403;

Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. The corrective trading from 0.9504 is expected to extend in near term with risk of another decline. Below 0.9328 will turn bias to the downside for 0.9211 support and below. In that case, we'd expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.8659 to 0.9504 at 0.9181 and bring rebound. On the upside, break of 0.9504 is needed to confirm rally resumption or we won't turn bullish in case of strong rebound.

In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.1079 are viewed as a medium term correction. Recent development argues that it's possibly finished at 0.8659 on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD, ahead of 50% retracement of 0.6008 to 1.1079 at 0.8544. Rebound from there would extend higher to 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 to 0.8659 at 0.9583 first. Sustained break there will confirm this case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0155 and above. However, break of 0.9080 near term support will dampen this bullish view and would likely extend the correction from 1.1079 to a new low.

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